Peak Oil!
There is a big problem, and we are going to have to deal with it.
The evidence has long been clear that oil resources are finite, and production will peak and go into decline early this century. The question is, why there has been so little high-level policy action? What about the proposition that dealing with the complex changes involved in the transition to oil supply contraction requires new kinds of engineering modelling and analysis.
There are no miracle technologies that will mitigate the need for major policy, economic, infrastructure and land use changes. Researchers have the responsibility to develop new methods and tools necessary for policy makers and planners to manage this unaccustomed change. Without the right tools, the policy choice is between denying the problem and hoping for miracles.
With the right Transition Engineering tools, the policy choices are about which changes in land use, incentives or taxes, investments etc. will most efficiently reduce vulnerability and risk, increase adaptive capacity and build in resilience. For more than a decade, the research and development programme at the Advanced Energy and Material Systems Lab (AEMSLab) has focused on Transition Engineering.
The first Transition Engineering project is to assess vulnerability and risk to essential activities from oil demand contraction in the near and long term. The risk assessment method employs a probabilistic model of future fuel availability and an impact model of travel behaviour adaptation to meet the probable fuel constraint. The second project is to assess travel adaptive capacity of current travel behaviour and of the current urban forms using a new kind of travel survey, and to develop adaptation models for different urban development scenarios.
Another important analysis is the active mode accessibility of the current urban form. The model uses GIS data, geographic transport network data and an activity model based on the demographic profile. Future urban form development, technology and infrastructure investments and behaviour change are modelled using the strategic analysis method.
There are no miracle technologies that will mitigate the need for major policy, economic, infrastructure and land use changes. Researchers have the responsibility to develop new methods and tools necessary for policy makers and planners to manage this unaccustomed change. Without the right tools, the policy choice is between denying the problem and hoping for miracles.
With the right Transition Engineering tools, the policy choices are about which changes in land use, incentives or taxes, investments etc. will most efficiently reduce vulnerability and risk, increase adaptive capacity and build in resilience. For more than a decade, the research and development programme at the Advanced Energy and Material Systems Lab (AEMSLab) has focused on Transition Engineering.
The first Transition Engineering project is to assess vulnerability and risk to essential activities from oil demand contraction in the near and long term. The risk assessment method employs a probabilistic model of future fuel availability and an impact model of travel behaviour adaptation to meet the probable fuel constraint. The second project is to assess travel adaptive capacity of current travel behaviour and of the current urban forms using a new kind of travel survey, and to develop adaptation models for different urban development scenarios.
Another important analysis is the active mode accessibility of the current urban form. The model uses GIS data, geographic transport network data and an activity model based on the demographic profile. Future urban form development, technology and infrastructure investments and behaviour change are modelled using the strategic analysis method.
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